75% probability that EUR/USD will trend down on Thursday at 8:30am EST if the US GDP number is lower than economists’ expectations

This Thursday at 8:30am EST the US government will release their latest GDP number. If the number is less than the economist consensus there is a 75% probability that EUR/USD will trend lower for 4 hours following the news event.

This probability is based on the last 12 GDP events, in which 3 of the last 4 events where the actual number was lower than the economist consensus resulted in devaluation in the EURO. Here are images of the past events:

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Disclaimer: Past performance may not be indicative of future performance