85.7% probability that USDCAD will trend higher on Thursday at 8:30am EST if the US Jobless Claims number is lower than economists’ expectations

This Thursday at 8:30am EST the US government will release their latest Jobless Claims number. If the number is smaller than the economist consensus there is a 85.7% probability that USD/CAD will trend higher for 4 hours following the news event.

This probability is based on the last 12 Jobless Claims events, in which 6 of the last 7 events where the actual number was smaller than the economist consensus resulted in depreciation of the Canadian dollar. Here are images of the past events:

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Disclaimer: Past performance may not be indicative of future performance