85.7% probability that GBPUSD will trend lower on Friday at 3:30am EST if the GB GDP number is higher than economists’ expectations

This Friday at 3:30am EST the Government of the United Kingdom will release their latest GDP number. If the number is larger than the economist consensus there is a 85.7% probability that GBP/USD will trend lower for 4 hours following the news event.

This probability is based on the last 12 GDP events, in which 6 of the last 7 events where the actual number was larger than the economist consensus resulted in an appreciation of the British pound. Here are images of the past events:

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Disclaimer: Past performance may not be indicative of future performance