80% probability that USDCAD will trend higher on Friday at 7:30am EST if the US Durable Goods Orders number is higher than economists’ expectations

This Friday at 7:30am EST the US government will release their latest Durable Goods Orders number. If the number is larger than the economist consensus there is a 80% probability that USD/CAD will trend higher for 4 hours following the news event.

This probability is based on the last 12 Durable Goods Orders events, in which 4 of the last 5 events where the actual number was larger than the economist consensus resulted in depreciation of the Canadian dollar. Here are images of the past events:

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Disclaimer: Past performance may not be indicative of future performance